Categories: Articles

The Next Twitter?

When something becomes popular, the fashionable thing to do is to figure out what comes next. Even if we still haven’t really figured out the value of the thing we’ve already proclaimed dead (or slowing down).

On July 13th, 2009, Winston Ross posted to his Blog the article, The Next Twitter?, which was supposed to run on the Newsweek website but got killed because Time Magazine did a Twitter cover story around the same time. Within his article/Blog post was a very interesting quote from Ian Muir (a web developer with Amplified Studios):

“A lot of the things these sites have to do to make money are the same kinds of things that drive users away. Part of the reason Twitter has so many users is there’s no ads, no noise. They’re also not making any money. Facebook, as they’ve brought in more ads, they make more money per user but their growth rate has slowed way down.”

Are we really at the point where consumers now want everything for free and they will leave if this freeness comes with ad support?

Are we also saying that if you introduce ads and start making money that this is a sure sign that your growth rate will slow down?

This can’t be the case. Consumers who get free platforms, content, etc… understand that it comes at a cost and that cost has, traditionally, been advertising. The model seems to work (just look at the deluge of iPhone apps and how the free versions have ads, but the paid versions are ad-free with some additional services). The challenge with this model is more about inventory and options than growth rate or abandonment. The reality is that with so many online newspapers, Blogs, portals and platforms, there is a plethora of ad space available and this drives both CPM and CPC prices lower (it’s becoming the opposite of a scarcity model… welcome to the abundance model).

People don’t leave when companies make money or run ads, they leave when it’s no longer valuable to them.

We also have to careful about how we measure/define success going forward. A lot of the conversation about how we define success with Social Media and Digital Marketing revolves around the sheer mass volume of people – not the engagement, connection of wealth of data and information that comes from within. Ads and the "things these sites have to do to make money" are not the same things that drive users away. In fact, it may not be driving anyone away, it could simply mean that there is fatigue with the usefulness of the platform or that the mass number it currently reaches is the critical mass.

Advertising is never what drives people away. Do you agree?

Mitch Joel

Mitch Joel lives at the intersection of technology, business transformation and consumer culture. He is the Executive Director of Next Era Institute, a strategic intelligence platform helping leaders understand the forces reshaping business, technology, culture and society. The Institute identifies which shifts matter, explores their wider significance and translates them into strategic direction and momentum. Mitch is also a globally recognized keynote speaker. He has delivered thousands of presentations across both B2B and B2C industries to organizations including Google, Walmart, LEGO, Shopify, Microsoft, Procter & Gamble and Unilever. Strategy Magazine has called him “one of North America’s leading visionaries.” Mitch built his career by working directly inside the waves of change that reshaped modern business. He founded and built a digital marketing agency that worked with some of the world’s largest brands and was later acquired by WPP, where he served as President of a firm operating in 25 countries with almost 3,000 employees. Mitch is the bestselling author of Six Pixels of Separation and CTRL ALT Delete, and the host of Thinking With Mitch Joel, one of the longest-running business podcasts in the world. His writing and commentary appear in outlets including Harvard Business Review, Fast Company and Inc. Magazine. He is a member of Dr. Marshall Goldsmith’s 100 Coaches and was named to the Thinkers50 Radar. Mitch also hosts Groove – The No Treble Podcast, documenting the oral history of electric bass players. Mitch is also Co-Founder of ThinkersOne, a platform that enables companies to bring personalized thought leadership from world-class experts into meetings, events and off-sites in focused 15-minute bursts.