Is there one link, story, picture or thought that you saw online this week that you think somebody you know must see?
My friends: Alistair Croll (Just Evil Enough, Solve for Interesting, Tilt the Windmill, Interesting Bits, HBS, chair of Strata, Startupfest, FWD50, and Scaletechconf; author of Lean Analytics and some other books), Hugh McGuire (Rebus Foundation, PressBooks, LibriVox) and I decided that every week the three of us are going to share one link for one another (for a total of six links) that each individual feels the other person “must see.”
Check out these six links that we’re recommending to one another:
- AI Is Now A Debt Bubble Too, Quietly Surpassing All Banks To Become The Largest Sector In The Market – Tyler Durden – ZeroHedge. “I don’t doubt AI is transformative. I’ve heard it referred to as a universal translator (and most knowledge work is translation.) But is that enough to pay off the huge investment, plus returns, that investors expect? ZeroHedge saying the quiet part of what many of my private chats have been whispering out loud: AI is a financial all-in; based on how much is now invested. If it collapses, it’ll be like the 2008 housing bubble. So what would it take for it to collapse? Not much: Even with the very optimistic projections we see today, returns would ‘still fall $800 billion short of the revenue needed to fund the full investment.’ Part of this is because the depreciation of AI assets happens very quickly – ‘all we need is a miracle.’ Sobering.” (Alistair for Hugh).
- America’s Future Could Hinge On Whether Ai Slightly Disappoints – Noah Smith – Noahpinion. “Noah Smith with a different version of the same take. US GDP would have grown at half the current rate were it not for AI investment; ‘AI doesn’t have to fail. It just has to mildly disappoint the most ardent optimists.’ If markets are buoyed by collective delusions, maybe all it takes is for someone to point out the Emperor is naked and tell their friends – as I mentioned in last week’s post on common knowledge.” (Alistair for Mitch).
- An AI Addendum – Praetorian Capital. “Investment guy Harris Kupperman doesn’t think the math adds up on AI. Capex is normally deprecated over 10 years, but in the AI world hardware seems to be lasting ~3-5 years. The math is already bad, but: ‘If you speed up the depreciation curve… the industry probably needs a revenue range that is closer to the $320 billion to $480 billion range, just to break even.’ Current AI revenues are ~$20-30B (but almost half of those revenues are the AI software and services sector paying for AI hardware & infra!). Anyway, Harris doesn’t think the math adds up, and further that it looks like any number of historical massive buildouts (railways, internet), where many will lose their shirts, but value comes eventually. Tread carefully.” (Hugh for Alistair).
- Innovation In Canada: Inputs Vs. Outputs – Alicia Planincic – Jock Finlayson – LinkedIn. “Canada is pretty good on innovation inputs: Investments in R&D, education, and institutional capacity contributing to a country’s innovation potential. Canada is in free-fall in innovation outputs, tangible results of innovation such as patents, trademarks, commercialized products, and high-tech exports. The future ain’t so bright. Unless we change things Canadian’s won’t even be able to afford the shades.” (Hugh for Mitch).
- How Near Is An AI Crash? – The Rest Is Money – YouTube. “I don’t know how this happened, but this is beginning to feel like a pile-on into the AI bubble crash vortex. I think bubbles are mostly stock-driven factors and not necessarily reality on the ground. Hype is definitely one thing, and that plays into stock market prices and valuations, but when I dig into these tools, the hype moves in the opposite direction (for me). It feels almost like it’s under-hyped, in terms of the potential outcomes and opportunities that these tools and technologies can provide to humanity. With that, I have lots of caution, fears and concerns. Mainly that investors don’t necessarily understand what the products and services are so much as the potential financial windfalls. And that’s where the bubbles begin to get bustable. I am a big fan of Azeem Azhar. He was actually a guest on my podcast a few years back. This is an interesting discussion about the topics everybody seems to be surfacing…” (Mitch for Alistair).
- How Afraid Of The AI Apocalypse Should We Be? – The Ezra Klein Show – YouTube. “I was going to share something else with you this week, but I figured once we’re going down the rabbit hole, let’s go all the way to the farthest extremes of the conversation. Let’s put aside whether or not this is an AI bubble in terms of markets and capitalizations, and let’s dig into whether or not AI is actually going to kill us all. You won’t find anybody more resolute in this thinking than Eliezer Yudkowsky (I have been following his work and thinking for years). There is no one more afraid of artificial intelligence than he is. And he’s someone who knows about this technology and how it is created intimately. He has a new book out called If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. So… yes… He’s very serious about this stuff. And if you’re curious about how things can go wrong, or as he points out, already have gone wrong, this is well worth your time…” (Mitch for Hugh).
Feel free to share these links and add your picks on X, Facebook, in the comments below or wherever you play.
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Mitch JoelMitch Joel lives at the intersection of technology, business transformation and consumer culture. He is the Executive Director of Next Era Institute, a strategic intelligence platform helping leaders understand the forces reshaping business, technology, culture and society. The Institute identifies which shifts matter, explores their wider significance and translates them into strategic direction and momentum. Mitch is also a globally recognized keynote speaker. He has delivered thousands of presentations across both B2B and B2C industries to organizations including Google, Walmart, LEGO, Shopify, Microsoft, Procter & Gamble and Unilever. Strategy Magazine has called him “one of North America’s leading visionaries.” Mitch built his career by working directly inside the waves of change that reshaped modern business. He founded and built a digital marketing agency that worked with some of the world’s largest brands and was later acquired by WPP, where he served as President of a firm operating in 25 countries with almost 3,000 employees. Mitch is the bestselling author of Six Pixels of Separation and CTRL ALT Delete, and the host of Thinking With Mitch Joel, one of the longest-running business podcasts in the world. His writing and commentary appear in outlets including Harvard Business Review, Fast Company and Inc. Magazine. He is a member of Dr. Marshall Goldsmith’s 100 Coaches and was named to the Thinkers50 Radar. Mitch also hosts Groove – The No Treble Podcast, documenting the oral history of electric bass players. Mitch is also Co-Founder of ThinkersOne, a platform that enables companies to bring personalized thought leadership from world-class experts into meetings, events and off-sites in focused 15-minute bursts.