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Reality Bites – Apple Revises Vision Pro’s Bright Future

When Apple unveiled the Vision Pro, the buzz was palpable (maybe that was just me?).

You can listen to my initial hot takes here:

This wasn’t just any product launch – it was a $4500 glimpse into the near-future of augmented and virtual reality, courtesy of one of Silicon Valley’s giants.
Now, months down the line, the excitement has cooled (was it ever really hot?), replaced by a sobering recalibration of production forecasts amid tepid demand.

The enthusiasm gap.

We seem to forget that it was always going to be the next big leap forward while also having limited niche appeal (like all new tech).

As an entrepreneur there are two constants in our world:

Innovation doesn’t guarantee acceptance.
This might not work.

Sure, all revolutionary tech comes with a premium price tag for the consumer – there’s a need to recoup development outlays and cultivate a base of early adopters.
Still in a world of $500 Meta Quest devices that have yet to have mass appeal, it’s always a precarious dance between ambition and reach.

So, where are we at?

Apple originally expected to sell as many as 800,000 Apple Vision Pro units this year.
Apple has revised its Apple Vision Pro shipment expectations for 2024 down to 400,000 – 450,000 units.
This means Apple is looking at around $1.4 billion in sales (not bad for what others consider a bust?).
Apple took in about $385 billion in sales (and this wasn’t even considered a great year for Apple).
The company has more cash on hand than any other company in the world (around $165 billion)… and more than most countries.

So… not great for a product launch but hardly an issue for the company if it needs to absorb this first attempt.

Is it Apple or is it the virtual reality space?

The future of AR/VR lies not just in overcoming technological hurdles but in weaving these technologies into the fabric of everyday life in ways that resonate and add value to the average consumer (it also needs that killer app).

If I was Apple… I would keep going…

This is what Elias Makos and I discussed on CJAD 800 AM. Listen in right here.

https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/1811865714

Mitch Joel · Reality Bites – Apple Revises Vision Pro's Bright Future

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Mitch Joel

Mitch Joel lives at the intersection of technology, business transformation and consumer culture. He is the Executive Director of Next Era Institute, a strategic intelligence platform helping leaders understand the forces reshaping business, technology, culture and society. The Institute identifies which shifts matter, explores their wider significance and translates them into strategic direction and momentum. Mitch is also a globally recognized keynote speaker. He has delivered thousands of presentations across both B2B and B2C industries to organizations including Google, Walmart, LEGO, Shopify, Microsoft, Procter & Gamble and Unilever. Strategy Magazine has called him “one of North America’s leading visionaries.” Mitch built his career by working directly inside the waves of change that reshaped modern business. He founded and built a digital marketing agency that worked with some of the world’s largest brands and was later acquired by WPP, where he served as President of a firm operating in 25 countries with almost 3,000 employees. Mitch is the bestselling author of Six Pixels of Separation and CTRL ALT Delete, and the host of Thinking With Mitch Joel, one of the longest-running business podcasts in the world. His writing and commentary appear in outlets including Harvard Business Review, Fast Company and Inc. Magazine. He is a member of Dr. Marshall Goldsmith’s 100 Coaches and was named to the Thinkers50 Radar. Mitch also hosts Groove – The No Treble Podcast, documenting the oral history of electric bass players. Mitch is also Co-Founder of ThinkersOne, a platform that enables companies to bring personalized thought leadership from world-class experts into meetings, events and off-sites in focused 15-minute bursts.